In this blog, I (Jose Azcarate) provide an analysis of SwingArm Trading Market from 15 June to 22 June.
Summary of today’s price action in one chart:
Notice the blue candles then the white once it bottoms out.
|08:30||USD||Core Retail Sales||(MoM) (May)||0.1%||0.4%|
|08:30||USD||Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index||Jun||13.5||10.4|
|08:30||USD||Retail Sales||(MoM) (May)||0.1%||0.4%|
We may see a backtest of support – lows of yesterday to confirm if buyers are still there or not.
Overall, we are at extremes and volatile moves are likely. So as usual, trade with care and respect stops.
4400 Support – 4500 Resistance Weekly Zones
4400 Support – 4500 Resistance Weekly Zones.
4400 SUPPORT – Highlighted at 7:30 AM
Big picture – vs. 1 min
Keeping the above chart in mind, see if this sequence helps:
ES Continuos contract, M and U Contracts
Extremes – but buyers keep pushing
NQ – AT 3 Std. Dev Extremes but with room to move higher.
No new resistance labels guiding to a top approach.
1 MIN VIEW WITH 1HR SWINGARMS AND HIGH PRESSURE ON
BOTH NQ AND ES
Extreme Signals are all over and the price keeps moving up. As long as the 1 min swingarm is pushing the trade is long.
Extreme Zone of the Weekly
Trading the ES last week, even amidst the complexities of the quadruple witching phenomenon, was rather straightforward, providing ample opportunities for substantial profits. However, the upcoming week may present a more challenging landscape. In retrospect, last week’s trading was uncomplicated with a bullish trend on every dip. Notably, the anticipated volatility from the quadruple witching event didn’t materialize, reinforcing the importance of trading based on chart analyses rather than personal apprehensions.
Moving forward into this week, we might observe a degree of turbulence with swing arms (lower timeframes) potentially in conflict with each other as consolidation unfolds. Let’s navigate these waters together, leaning on the expertise of our team and the resilience of our strategies.
Given the current chart configuration, would you classify it as bullish or bearish? If you were to initiate a trade based on this setup, would you opt for a long or short position, and could you please share your reasoning behind this choice? (Refresh Your Charts – CTRL R) Regardless of your overall trading strategy, it’s crucial to determine your specific thresholds. Identify where to set your stop-loss and potential targets at which you might consider realizing profits.
Thanks to the robust correlation of 92% between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, any strong buy or sell signals that emerge on one of these indices could potentially hint at a similar trend developing on the other index. In other words, it’s highly probable – 92% of the time – that they’ll mirror each other’s movements. Our Swingarem pressure system is equipped to provide these crucial alerts, serving as a reliable guide to help streamline your trading decisions.
Please keep in mind, however, that during periods of high volatility, this correlation may fluctuate. For example, Nasdaq stocks might exhibit significant movement due to earnings announcements or other market factors. Despite these exceptions, overall, the two indices generally sync up and follow a common trend, thanks to their strong correlation.
Notice the FAILED Bullish signals on ES. Then backtest and SELL signals with pressure DOWN.
SIDE BY SIDE – ONE MINUTE – ES500 / NASDAQ 100
PRESSURE RELEASE MARKERS OF THE CHART – EITHER BUYERS OR SELLERS IN CONTROL – Prior to market opening, squeeze highlighted by resistance and bearish p144 with buyers pushing with pressure. After the market opens, swingarm breaks, and selling pressure signals are triggered.
Reaching extreme supports which can be the exit if desired.
Illustration of today’s price action based on the upgraded system – NASDAQ
ES ILLUSTRATION UP TO NOW
NASDAQ ILLUSTRATION UP TO NOW
Bear in mind that the swingarm pressure system possesses the capability to spotlight virtually every significant pivot point for price. Given this, there’s no obligation to execute every potential trade. More often than not, the initial setup of the day tends to be the most promising one. From a day trading standpoint, there may be two major trades on occasion.
A single well-timed entry, yielding a 20 to 30-point profit on the ES with a few contracts, is sufficient to notably grow an account. The primary objective here isn’t to be entirely absorbed by the charts but to become successful traders who also have ample time to cherish family life and the benefits derived from trading victories.
Price targets. Four hours and below?
Price below wave support for hours. It opens up the door to the wave below unless it is able to get back on top of it.
Same for NQ.
NQ – 4 HOUR
From the 1 hr perspective, it is a support.
The one-minute swingarm will determine the initial direction 4400 level either support or resistance.
A view of NQ Prior to open, fake test of support at open and rally.
Time Cur. Imp. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Thursday, June 22, 2023, 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 264K 260K 264K
10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (May) 4.30M 4.25M 4.29M
10:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
11:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.831M 1.873M 7.919M
The perfect touch of the wave and reject to backtest the bullish 15 min.
NOTICE THE BLUE CIRCLES – BUYERS’ PRESSURE RELEASED
Pressure Release for ES 2hr chart / 4 hr swingarm
Illustration of the updates to the pressure system.
Depending on where bullish pressure triggers (at support or resistance) determines the entry opportunity. Overall, as pressure triggers, trend confirmation to buy the backtests of support is confirmed.
15 MINUTES UPDATE
1-MINUTE VIEW OF TODAY’S RANGES – ALLOWING FOR A LONG ENTRY PRE-MARKET AND MINOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE DAY TRADERS BETWEEN THE BULLISH HIGH-PRESSURE ZONE AND RESISTANCE ABOVE.
Hopefully, this is clear to most of you.
Notice the Optimal Entry Lines and how accurate they were.
Optimal entry at 4402 – from the high-pressure bullish box / optimal line – EXACT.
4400 Becomes support.
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