SwingArm – Comments by Jose 04/14/2023

Although the target may seem within reach, the 1-minute chart has yet to show any intention of breaking the swingarms. Personally, I would advise against attempting a short position until the swingarms confirm the entry point. The upward pressure persists, as the swingarm continues to step higher and higher.

I’d like to note that today was not choppy when viewed through the lens of the swingarm system. The 1-minute chart did not shift at all, indicating a perfectly bullish day with no cycling of the swingarm. The trend remained intact the entire time, providing a clear signal for traders to follow.

1 minute chart swingarm
Nothing stopping this.
tradingview chart
TradingView Chart

It is pretty close to turning over or breaking up.

tradingview chart blog image

28/9 Keeps holding for now. It may cycle overnight which happens often. The news tomorrow will determine where price action goes.

This is the 4th Hit to this level which makes it vulnerable to breaking.

Pretty bullish overnight

Price below resistances but pressure is and probabilities are bullish. The news will determine direction. System wise bullish bias.

Price is back above the Weekly and Daily Main pivots. Price has been on both sides of them consolidating.

From a monthly perspective, we are resistance – top of the range for the month so far.


The current state of the market is at a critical juncture. The charts indicate a high probability of a break up targeting 4200 initially. This is not a mere opinion or personal bias, but a fact observed from the charts. The 2-Day extreme zone has been hit multiple times, with price responding while keeping the price action within its zones, leading to pressure building over time. This is a typical scenario that plays out with price, as time and price range provide the necessary ingredients for pressure to build up. However, it is important to keep in mind that news events also play a crucial role in market movements, and how the market interprets such news will ultimately determine the outcome.

One last chart


15 Min Sell P55 Not confirmed. Weak for such a setup.

Comparison ES / MNQ / RTY

Comparison ES / MNQ / RTY
4200 Initially

Properly trading price at extremes of higher timeframes requires a great deal of patience and experience. Currently, I have taken a short position at 4185 and am giving the market time to see if the 15-minute chart breaks down. It’s important to be cautious and methodical in these situations to avoid unnecessary losses.

As seen in the chart above, all three indices have topped out and turned. I took a short position near the high and am now monitoring it closely, giving it the necessary room to play out. In particular, I am watching the 1-minute swingarm 28/5 to see if it breaks the downtrend.

RUT leading the move down

4140 Area of interest on ES

Regression channels with 2 standard deviations are powerful in making trading decisions because they provide a visual representation of where the majority of price action is occurring. The channel is constructed using linear regression to identify the middle of the trend, and then the standard deviations are used to create the channel boundaries.

The channel’s upper and lower boundaries are considered significant because they represent price levels that are outside the norm. When price reaches these boundaries, it can indicate that the market is overbought or oversold, which can signal a potential reversal or pullback.

Additionally, the channel can be used to identify potential support and resistance levels, as price tends to bounce off the channel boundaries. Traders can use these levels to place trades or adjust stop-loss orders.

Overall, regression channels with 2 standard deviations are a powerful tool for traders as they provide a clear picture of where price is trading relative to its trend and can help identify potential trade setups and manage risk.

Price has now broken WAVE 2 – Trend Line #10 —-> the below image

and backtest it on the 1 minute chart.

15 Minute view of the waves and trendline below

On news days, it’s essential to exercise caution and patience when taking trades, ensuring that stop-loss orders are respected to prevent any significant damage to one’s trading account and emotional state. If both of these factors are hit hard, it can result in a loss of focus for the day, which must be avoided at all costs. In my approach, I wait for zones and extremes to develop before taking a trade, making sure that stops are in place. Recently, I shorted at 4185 and closed at 4154, taking profits on the second attempt. This trade was taken from one extreme to another and aligned with Trend 5 of the wave on the 15-minute chart. Additionally, the trade was taken at the bottom of the 15-minute regression channel, which made it a high-probability trade. See the chart for further details.

As we discussed in earlier posts, the 8-hour chart is showing a fresh buy bucket that is typically tested during OPEX, although there is no guarantee. It’s also important to keep in mind that if price does reach 4047, it’s unlikely to do so in one swift move. Instead, it will likely cycle up gradually over the next few days, providing ample trading opportunities along the way.

While there’s always a chance of a sudden drop in price, I’m not too concerned about it at the moment. Why? Because I know there will be plenty of opportunities to capture 30+ points next week starting on Monday. So, let’s stay patient, keep an eye on the charts, and wait for the right trading opportunities to present themselves.

As long as we protect capital and continue to capture profits over and over, the accounts will grow.

One Stop Out. One Profitable. Two trades for the day. If we get a bounce to backtest, I will consider it again. Otherwise, until Monday.

Ultimately, the decision of whether to hold and risk profits or take them and reload lies with the individual trader. Consistent gains of 30 points or more can be a valuable tool in growing trading accounts over time.

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